25 Jul 2012 10:00am

Statistical aspects of pharmaceutical subsidy


Decisions about whether to subsidise a new pharmaceutical should ideally be informed by evidence that rates highly on two criteria: quality and relevance.

Typically the available evidence is of high quality (internally valid) because high-quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are mandated for marketing approval.

However, the available evidence from RCTs is often not of direct relevance to the particular circumstances of the subsidy decision. Reasons include: wrong comparator; surrogate outcome; short time horizon.

This Seminar will provide an overview of three statistical methods that aim to produce evidence of more relevance: indirect comparisons, switching-adjusted hazard ratios and probability sensitivity analysis.